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Bootstrap
A resampling method that estimates an estimator's sampling distribution by repeatedly drawing new samples, with replacement, from the observed data itself, rather than relying on a theoretical formula.
In Plain English
The bootstrap treats your one observed sample as a stand-in for the entire population: draw a new sample the same size as your original, with replacement (so some observations get picked multiple times, others not at all), recompute your statistic, and repeat thousands of times. The spread of all those recomputed statistics approximates how much your original estimate would vary across many hypothetical real samples, without needing any theoretical formula for that variability.
Definition
The bootstrap (Efron, 1979) approximates the sampling distribution of a statistic by repeatedly drawing bootstrap samples , each of size , with replacement from the original observed data, recomputing the statistic on each resample, , and using the empirical distribution of these bootstrap replicates, , to approximate the true sampling distribution of . Because it substitutes computation for analytical derivation, the bootstrap can estimate standard errors, biases, and confidence intervals for complex statistics with no simple closed-form variance formula, and it is asymptotically valid under broad conditions, though it can fail for certain statistics (e.g. extreme order statistics) or in certain small-sample or heavy-tailed settings.
Formula
Notation
Properties
- The bootstrap's core assumption is that the observed sample is a reasonable stand-in for the true population, resampling from a small or highly unrepresentative sample will faithfully replicate that sample's own quirks and biases, not correct for them, so the bootstrap doesn't rescue a fundamentally inadequate original dataset.
- The number of bootstrap replicates B involves a computation-versus-precision tradeoff, a few hundred replicates is often adequate for a standard error, while several thousand are typically recommended for percentile-based confidence intervals, which are more sensitive to the tails of the bootstrap distribution.
- The bootstrap is known to perform poorly or require specialized variants for certain statistics and situations, including estimating extreme values (e.g. a sample maximum), dependent data like time series (requiring a block bootstrap), and settings with very small sample sizes, where the discreteness of possible resamples becomes a real limitation.
At a Glance